Spurs feva!

God, I wish Hengst still had the "Spurs Feva!" CD, a bootleg playoff rap that some locals produced. Way better than Montel Jordan's "This Is How We Do It," Spurs edition ("Dennis Rodman on the rebooooouuuund -- THIS IS HOW WE DO IT").

Training camp's started, and I'm hyped up. Looks like the Spurs filled out their roster by deciding to bring over Euro-project Ian Mahinmi and by signing second-round pick Marcus Williams. James White reportedly signed in Turkey.

The likely roster on opening day:
1. Duncan
2. Ginobili
3. Parker
4. Bowen
5. Finley
6. Barry
7. Oberto
8. Elson
9. Bonner
10. Vaughn
11. Horry
12. Udrih
13. Ime Udoka
14. Ian Mahinmi
15. Marcus Williams

All right, let's do it! Time to bore this league into submission!

Basketball is finally almost back

We finally got internet at the apartment yesterday, so hopefully I can get back to posting more here, especially photos from our move and stuff like that.

In the meantime, big news today in the NBA is that Shawn Marion wants out of Phoenix. TrueHoop mentioned that the Lakers seem like a possible destination because Marion's friends with Kobe.

Long and I tooled around a bit with the Trade Machine, and it turns out the Lakers, who can build a package around Lamar Odom, seem to have the most to offer Phoenix at this late juncture:

Marion and Marcus Banks for Odom, Mo Evans, Ronny Turiaf, and Sasha Vujacic.

The Suns finally dump Banks's contract and they get Odom + 3 role players who could all work in their system. Evans brings perimeter D; Turiaf hits the glass; and Vujacic assume the "James Jones Memorial" spot-up shooter role. Plus, everyone except Odom is in the final year of their contract, so they become cap relief if they don't work out.

The Lakers, meanwhile, can talk themselves into Banks as a decent back up PG, and they get to keep the coveted (for whatever reason) Andrew Bynum.

And for the record, I think it's bad business that Phoenix ever let it come to this with such an amazing player as Marion, even if he is a head case.

Spurs sign "sniper"

Ime Udoka, officially a Spur.

I saw in the S.A. paper that the Spurs now have 14 players under contract. That must include the Greek guy who's taking off. Here's the updated roster:

1. Duncan
2. Ginobili
3. Parker
4. Bowen
5. Finley
6. Barry
7. Oberto
8. Elson
9. Bonner
10. Vaughn
11. Horry
12. Udrih
13. Ime Udoka
14. Vassilis Spanoulis

It'll be interesting to see where Udoka fits in and if it means Bowen's minutes will decline as the season progresses.

Even more interesting is what happens with all of our role players. Barry, Bowen, Horry, Finley, Elson, and Beno all have expiring contracts. That could make the Spurs a big player at the trade deadline. For instance, Barry's shooting will always be in demand. Or maybe Tiago Splitter coming over next year makes Elson expendable.

Lots of possibilities here, but nothing says they have to do anything. The Spurs probably feel just fine making a run with the same crew (+ Udoka) that just won a title. But they will listen to all offers, since they have to reload with younger players for the stretch run of Duncan's career.

Speaking of Duncan, this quote from Greg Oden is too good to pass up:

Everyone's been telling me that as a big man, no matter how much I prepare myself, you learn your toughest lesson when you go down to San Antonio. The other day [former Spur and Blazers assistant] Monty Williams pulled me aside and told me: "That guy down there" — meaning Tim Duncan — "has had surgery on his left knee. He can only jump about this high [holds his fingers about an inch apart]. He won't say a word to you, and he will Bust. Your. Ass.

First thing's first

I'd forgotten I even posted Gilbert's shark bit, but by now we all know he plagiarized that from another comedian, right? Just making sure. See also: Hibachi's thoughts on intellectual property.

I wish I'd written this

Always quality from Gilbert Arenas:

There are these things called shark attacks, but there is no such thing as a shark attack. I have never seen a real shark attack.

I know you’re making a weird face as you’re reading this. OK people, a shark attack is not what we see on TV and what people portray it as.

We’re humans. We live on land.

Sharks live in water.

So if you’re swimming in the water and a shark bites you, that’s called trespassing. That is called trespassing. That is not a shark attack.

A shark attack is if you’re chilling at home, sitting on your couch, and a shark comes in and bites you; now that’s a shark attack.

Via TrueHoop.

Well, I'll be derned

KG to Boston after all. A quick breakdown...

Boston gets:
— Garnett

Minny gets:
— Al Jefferson
— Ryan Gomes
— Gerald Green
— Sebastian Telfair (expiring deal)
— Theo Ratliff (expiring deal)
— Boston's first in 2009 (lottery protected)
— Minny's future no. 1 that they traded to Boston in a previous bad deal

Dadgum, that's a lot of players coming into Minny. I've also seen it suggested that this tearing down of an era could be an excuse for McHale to cede control to GM-in-waiting Fred Hoiberg. That's a trade kicker that can't be underestimated.

The obvious: Celtics fans, including the most famous one, Bill Simmons, are all on board the Relevance Train, ecstatic to return to the mix and fight for the right to get obliterated in the Finals by S.A./Dallas/PHX.

The non-obvious: Simmons did make the interesting point that a nucleus of Jefferson, Gomes, Telfair, and Corey Brewer, along with Gerald Green's still-potential potential, is pretty much the same core Boston would have had to rebuild had it stood pat or found a way to trade Pierce (which is what I would have done, if I were Ainge). Minnesota's still got a lot of garbage on the roster to clear out before the young-ins can develop, but we'll at least get to see what those cats can do together.

Additionally, John Hollinger noted the outside chance that Boston could fill its now-depleted roster (assuming the trade, they have only 8 players under contract) with the likes of Brevin Knight, P.J. Brown, and Ime Udoka (I'd throw Matt Barnes in there, too). That's ... actually a pretty damn good team. So if all their gilded dinosaurs stay healthy, we'll amend the Celtics' ceiling to "West in 6."

The question: Why wasn't Minny able to get Rajon Rondo? Telfair seems like a long shot at best, mild salary cap relief at worst. Everyone knows Rondo's got more potential — and Garnett surely is worth more than Jefferson+Gomes+risk. Maybe Boston made the return of Minny's pick conditional on not giving up Rondo, the only viable PG on that roster. There's about a 103% chance the Wolves are in the lottery for the next three years, so that pick takes on significantly more value than I first thought. (God, McHale just tossed away firsts like candy, huh?)

At the very least, things will be interesting in Boston and the East this year. And Minny's a hotbed of fantasy speculation. I'm excited. So are several of my trusted NBA chat sources. All hail the Fred Hoiberg era. Maybe he can teach Gerald Green how to shoot.

White flight

Via Hengst, the Spurs have waived James White. "I guess we're still gonna be waiting for a Spur to win the dunk contest," he reported.

Spurs saved another million or so by letting White go. They're down to 12 players under contract now. Wonder if this means they're that much closer to signing Udoka or that they'll keep second round pick Marcus Williams around. It's also worth noting that the team doesn't have to keep 15 players on its roster at this point, especially if they're looking to skim in under the luxury tax.

Mavs fans are welcome to make their signing-Donaghy jokes ... now.

UPDATE: Whoops, it only saves them about $100,000. They must really not have been impressed with him in Summer League. "He apparently lacked the physicality the Spurs sought," the Spurs beat writer reported.

Udoka looks like odd man out in Portland

The Blazers resigned small forward Travis Outlaw, giving them something like 27 players on their roster. Outlaw, 22, is obviously part of the longterm building around the Big Deduction, Greg Oden.

As expected, that likely leaves Ime Udoka in search of a new home. Along with the Spurs, Memphis is reportedly interested.

So let's see how the 15 roster spots are shaping up, after the initial flurry of free agent activity:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Manu Ginobili
3. Tony Parker
4. Bruce Bowen
5. Michael Finley
6. Brent Barry
7. Fabulous Oberto
8. Francisco Elson (Did you know he's 30 already? He looks 26.)
9. Matt Bonner
10. Jacque Vaughn
11. Robert Horry
12. Beno Udrih (Gotta think he's on the block for cost-savings, too.)
13. James White (presumably)
14. Ime Udoka or Mickael Pietrus
15. Marcus Williams or Ian Mahinmi.

That, for now, looks to be the lay of the land.

More on Spurs trade

This article on HoopsWorld clears up the confusion for me about the Spurs trade. Site editor Bill Ingram writes that it's all about finding a replacement for Bruce Bowen, who's getting up there in years and was noticeably a step slower this season. I think that's partly right, but I also think it's mainly about flexibility.

The Spurs recent history suggests that they've abandoned the typical NBA model for filling a need. Most teams guess at the one player they think will save the day and then overspend to get him (Hi, Orlando, I'd like you to meet Rashard Lewis). The Spurs, though, especially after the Rasho and Malik deals, have opted instead to place small bets on several players. Then they wait and see which of them pays off. In trying to find a big man to go alongside Duncan, they signed Elson, Oberto, Butler, and Bonner (and re-upped Horry) for almost the same price as Detroit paid to take Nazr Mohammed off the Spurs' hands.

A year or two later, and they know Elson, Oberto, and Bonner can all bring something different and useful to the court. They also know Butler has talent, but isn't a fit for the Spurs system, so they used him in a deal to give themselves more flexibility all over again.

Now the target is finding an athletic, defensive wing to help (and perhaps replace) Bowen. The Spurs signed James White last year, drafted Marcus Williams this year, and are said to hot on the heels of Mickael Pietrus and/or Portland's Ime Udoka. All these guys are a little different, but all four are also either 6-6 or 6-7, known for being good defenders (except maybe White), and can shoot the three (Pietrus 38% last year, Udoka 40%).

There's a good chance that three of those four guys will make the 15-man squad, on a team that already has similar players in Bowen, Barry, and Finley. Again, it's a wait-and-see approach instead of going all-in with one big signing.

Of course the key is not just cap flexibility but roster spots. You only get 15, including guys you send to the D-League. Those roster spots are more valuable than people think. Each one that isn't directly contributing to winning games should represent the chance for a young player to suddenly develop into more than you ever hoped for. In other words, every aging, unused veteran clogging the end of the bench represents a lost opportunity at finding a surprising young stud.

This flexibility-focused approach is how the Spurs found Ginobili and Stephen Jackson after looking for a reliable 2-guard for almost a decade. It's how they've finally settled on the dirt-cheap Jacque Vaughn as Tony's back-up, while letting more expensive options like Speedy Claxton, Jason Hart, and even Avery Johnson (way back when) walk to greener pastures.

All of which makes the fact that the Greek guard won't play for the Spurs an asset to San Antonio. To send over Butler, the Spurs had to take on Spanoulis's salary in return. They exchanged a player they wouldn't use anyways for cash and that coveted roster spot. That seat on the bench now likely goes to one of the young, promising wings, or perhaps toward developing Ian Mahinmi, a more athletic big man with a much higher ceiling than Butler.

And as for the Scola situation, Ingram sheds some light on that, too — namely, that he wasn't ever going to play for us anyways. "Spurs scouts were certain that Scola was never going to join San Antonio," Ingram reports. "He wants to start, and that just isn't going to happen on a team with Tim Duncan." Not to mention that Scola's agent has accused the Spurs of violating our country's founding principles: "In the country of liberty, he is being held prisoner," he once said, which isn't exactly a good point for negotiations to reach.

So, in the end, that second round pick (along with the cash) represents just one more opportunity to grab a young player who surprises everyone. It's a long shot, but at least there's a chance.

Are the Spurs potentially confused?

Like everyone else, I find today's Spurs trade confusing. Jackie Butler and the rights to Luis Scola to the Rockets for a Greek guard who will never play another NBA game, a second-round pick, and cash.

General reaction cuts two ways:

1. Say, "What the hell?" Then give Spurs management the benefit of the doubt because we just won the title.

2. Great vengeance and furious anger. Quoth one Spurs blogger: "From a fan's perspective, this is entirely inexcusable. Actually, it's more like a fucking travesty." He then wrapped up the post by calling the deal a "turd sandwich."

Kelly Dwyer, normally of SI.com but filling in at TrueHoop, also went just a bit overboard, saying the trade "looks on paper to be one of the more lopsided NBA deals in the last decade."

Okay. Everyone catch your breath for a second. We all wish the Spurs had gotten more, but let's not get too worked up over the hype we're telling ourselves about what these guys could be. At their best, they're role players. That's easily forgotten. The talk of potential comes without a ceiling, and we tend to envision the stratosphere. Just this summer I found myself daydreaming of Butler and James White as integral pieces when the team transitions to the Tony Parker Era. Butler, the dynamic lost-post threat, a brick of a body with hands like cotton; White, the flying, dunking, slashing scorer and shifty defender — a spindlier, black Ginobili — forever running alongside Parker's fast-break.

Coaches and GM's, on the other hand, just want a guy who rotates on defense. That's probably where the disconnect is. Management, appreciating the unique combination of freakish talents and basketball smarts it takes to compete at this level, is looking for someone who won't get eaten alive. When coaches are high on players who aren't born superstars, I think this is the ceiling in their mind, the hoped-for result.

Example: right now it appears White's actual game isn't even up to Summer League standards. And Butler is a young, offensively talented player who is also lost in the Spurs defensive scheme, showed up to camp last year 30 pounds overweight, plays Duncan's position, has a $2.4 million salary this season, and whose value will never be higher. Might be time to let him go.

My guess is that fans/media conflate the two ideas of potential, and that leads to this trade being casually compared to the debacle that was "Marko Jaric and his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad contract extension for Sam Cassell AND a first."

But, really, the outrage here is mostly a residual of what we expected from Scola after Ginobili's rise. He's still widely regarded as the best player in Europe, mainly thanks to his tenacity, but he's also 27 and only 6-9. There isn't much potential left to reach, making it unlikely he'll morph into some wild, elbowy hybrid of Ginobili and Duncan. His trade value, simply, was down, thanks to his age. This year, we were in Chris Duhon territory. If the Rockets are lucky, he'll match the production of Oberto + Elson, and they'll be paying him about the same salary as those two guys combined, too.

In the end, with Houston's dirty oil money, the Spurs pocketed like $7 million and opened up a roster spot, possibly for Frenchie Mickael Pietrus. I could live with all this, if we hadn't just paid Matt Bonner $9 million for the next three years. So I guess all I'm left with is: In Pop we trust.

Same old Spurs

For all my Spurs-fans friends, a quick summary of this article in the San Antonio paper, which lays out the team's roster for next year, but takes many paragraphs to get there.

— Going into the free agent season, the Spurs expect to retain 14 of the 15 players who took that championship spin down the Riverwalk.

— Melvin Ely is the only player peacin' out. After coming over in a mid-season trade, he hardly played and looks to be moving on. Enjoy that ring, Melvin. I look forward to seeing on it on eBay soon.

— Robert Horry is not retiring.

— James White and Jackie Butler will both get a chance to strut their stuff in Summer League. I'll be rooting for White, who might be the best dunker I've ever seen and could be the dose of young athleticism this team needs. He sounds like a good kid (from Cincinnati's program, no less?!) who has already adopted that Spurs attitude: "For me to [get playing time], they've gotta be able to trust me on the defensive end. That's probably the biggest thing. Being able to go out there and being in the right spots at the right times and do the right things so they can trust me."

— Players the Spurs hope to resign: Fabricio Oberto, Jacque Vaughn, and The Red Rocket, Matt Bonner. All have indicated they would like to stay in S.A.

— The final roster spot will probably go to second-round pick Marcus Williams, who, according to at least one article, is not the head-case waiting to sabotage team chemistry that people make him out to be. Welcome to Austin (Toros), Marcus.

— The Spurs could open another roster spot by trading Beno Udrih, a move they've been pursuing for some time.

— The only free agent we're rumored to be after is Grant Hill, but it looks like we're about his third or fourth choice. Fine, we didn't want his toothpick ankles, anyway.

Crazy-eyed Cavs killer

tiumphant coyote, originally uploaded by Mr. Wright.

Quintessential Coyote. Pictures of the entire Spurs roster now up in the Champs 2007 set.

I've been a bad blogger

the sad coyote, originally uploaded by Mr. Wright.

Dang meat-world, getting in the way.

This is how we do it

fab's fabulous tooth, originally uploaded by Mr. Wright.

Man, I wish I could write more, but the celebration last weekend for the Spurs fourth title was sweeeeeeet. A few pics are already up in the Spurs Champs 2007 set. This one wasn't nearly the best, technically speaking, but it's got to be the funniest. Who knew Fab sported a platinum tooth? Thumbs up!

Fixing the Finals

As I prepare to head to S.A. for me and Grady's longstanding Spurs close-out game ritual, I see that more than a few people feel like the NBA Finals needs fixing, mainly because no one cares about them, so no one's watching. While there's plenty I'd change about the league, when it comes to the Finals, the NBA probably doesn't need procedural solutions. It just needs to tell better stories.

We can thank the Cavs' particular brand of awful basketball for the recent calls for revolution, although it's not their fault the East sucks. But they're obviously outclassed. Supposedly this is why people aren't watching, because the basketball isn't competitive.

The assumption here is that a higher quality of product -- i.e., a better caliber of basketball -- would bring more consumers. Not so, I say. It's not like the quality of the games played in the Super Bowl or World Series increases from a normal game. The Super Bowl is not hugely popular because the football suddenly becomes so compelling. Really, ratings have nothing to do with gameplay. They're about everything that goes on in between plays. But the NFL knows how to dress up its product to get non-football fans to watch. They sell the spectacle. The World Series sells history (explaining why the Red Sox title had HUGE ratings, but Astros-White Sox set record lows). The NBA hasn't figured out what to sell since Michael Jordan left the league.

If ratings are the goal, then that's what this boils down to: there's no compelling narrative that non-basketball fans can tap into. Solve that, and the ratings would improve, regardless of the quality of basketball. But right now the league's choices of theme song (some a capella choir?) and playoff spokesman (fucking David Blaine?) show they're a long, long way from figuring their audience out.

Non-Spurs basketball stuff

Superstition prevents me from talking about the Spurs during this Finals run, but here are a couple other quick things on the NBA landscape via TrueHoop.

1. Corey Brewer
This guy's going to be the steal of the draft, even if he goes at #3 (which he won't, because it's the Hawks). Word is, Doc Rivers really liked the workout the uber-wing gave last week. The Celtics would be smart to follow this hunch.

Brewer's got the skills and the track record. Two NCAA titles. Tourney Most Outstanding Player award. He succeeded in an system that stressed teamwork over superstars. He can play three positions in the NBA. Defense is his calling card. He knocks down open shots. And that's before we even talk about his ability to slash to the bucket. Great player. Seems exactly like the glue the C's need.

If Boston fans could stop whimpering for just a second, they might realize they're still getting a potential franchise cornerstone in Brewer. He'd be my #1 pick if not for Durant and Oden.

2. Two trades
While I know everyone wrongly thinks they could be an NBA GM, that won't stop me from proposing a couple trades that make sense.

Assuming the C's draft Brewer, what about offering Paul Pierce to the Clippers for Maggette, Kaman, and salary cap fodder? The deal works for both teams, I think, but only if the Clippers' owner is willing to give up Maggette, a personal favorite of his, in exchange for dumping Kaman's suddenly onerous contract.

Finally, it's clear the Utah Jazz are trying to move AK-47, but can't because of his massive contract. "There aren't many teams that are going to want to take on that financial load unless they're assured he's going to be a top-notch player," owner Larry Miller said (scroll down).

But what if another team owed an equally absurd amount of money to an underperforming star? In fact, one such team, Cleveland, has a player in Larry Hughes that exactly fits what the Jazz are looking for: an athletic, lock-down defending 2 who can hit open set shots.

Kirilenko for Hughes, straight up, works.

From Cleveland's perspective, Hughes has been misused ever since he came to town. He simply doesn't fit into their system. Cleveland does none of the things that Washington did to create on-court chaos that made Hughes an All-Star. Like Ginobili, he needs to be allowed to roam, to create steals, to make hustle plays on offense -- not initiating the offense.

With the emergence of Daniel Gibson and the assumption that Pavlovic will shake off his current jitters with age, the Cavs are fine at guard. With Kirilenko they become even better defensively and they add another player who is an excellent facilitator, which might, God willing, free LeBron up from dominating the ball. The move also makes Drew Gooden expendable. If they could trade him cap space to resign Varejao and a late 1st round pick, they could take a talented, pass-first PG, like Marist legend Jared Jordan.

Starting 5: Jordan, Gibson/Pavlovic, James, AK, Big Z.
Go big: Gibson, James, AK, Varejao, Big Z.
Go small: Jordan, Gibson, Pavlovic, James, AK.

That's a heck of a lot more versatility than they have this year, and the defense-first attitude is still preserved. But they have to acknowledge that they'll never win a championship with the offense they have now, and this offseason is the best time to address it.

To that end, the more I think about it, the more this deal makes sense -- except for the injury history of both players. It's essentially like trading two Faberge eggs. We'll see, I guess.

Fire Mike Brown

I don't really have words to describe how awful the second half of that Pistons-Cavs game was tonight. But this much I know: Mike Brown has got to go.

His team:

— Scored 26 points in the second half.

— Got Lebron exactly one shot in the 3rd quarter.

— At one point turned the ball over five straight possessions in the 4th quarter. That's not bad execution. That's something wrong at a fundamental level with the offense.

— Apparently called the play "Lebron tries to dribble through five defenders" the entire last quarter.

— Waited until his entire 12-point lead was shredded before going back to a small line-up.

— Told his team in the huddle that they were never to leak out (because "this is the Eastern Conference Finals"?) when his team scored exactly two baskets running half-court sets in the 3rd quarter.

— Burned through his time-outs too quickly again, leaving him without a shot to tie the game for the second game in a row.

— On the final play, just left Lebron standing out there all by himself again to run the same him-again-the-world play that had produced at most one basket the entire night.

Look, I hate nit-picking every move a coach makes after the fact all the time. But these are not isolated incidents. These are signature Mike Brown moves. He has to go, or this team isn't going anywhere ... except to the lottery when Lebron leaves in 2010.

POSTSCRIPT: Of course if the refs had called the game correctly, the Cavs might have still overcome all this. So to all you stupid-ass pundits who railed on Lebron for the last 3 days for not "getting to the line" down the stretch, tonight was a perfect example of why you don't leave the game in the hands of the refs.

UPDATE: In the Daily Dime, Chris Sheridan writes maybe the first thing I've ever read of his totally agree with. Another section of the Dime contains this Lebron quote: "We haven't been a good third quarter team all year." Hmm, you mean, it's as if your coach wasn't making good half-time adjustments? Who woulda thought?

You can't plan to get lucky

There are probably many more important things in my life I could be writing about, but something the Sports Guy wrote has been sticking in my craw all day. From his pity party column on ESPN bemoaning the Celtics' lack of lottery luck this year:

Ever since the summer of '86, for nearly 21 years and counting, the Celtics have been wildly, comically, irrationally unlucky. ... Maybe we didn't fully realize the ramifications of losing a potential franchise player (Tim Duncan) in '97, but we certainly realize them now. We're back to Square 1. We're sentenced to another decade of quick-fix plans, risky trades and dumb free agent signings.

That final sentence contradicts everything before it. Luck has nothing to do with systemic poor planning. And if you really understood the ramifications of losing Tim Duncan, you wouldn't be repeating the mistakes of the past.

Now, while I enjoy Simmons because he writes about the things fans actually care about*, this time, in his despair, he's taken the lazy journalist's deterministic approach to the draft lottery. I've seen so many damn articles recently look back on the Spurs' titles as foregone conclusions. Duncan = titles. Simple as that. Not only is this incorrect, it's downright foolish as a model for how to construct a better NBA team. It's a common mistake, I guess, to conclude that what eventually did happen was, from the start, pre-destined to happen. We all know this is not true in the dispassionate analysis, but sports is obviously a passionate subject.

Now, of course luck plays a role. The Celtics have had two truly, tragically unlucky things happen to them: the deaths of Len Bias and Reggie Lewis. But Lewis died 14 years ago. And, analyzing it in the coldest terms, losing the productivity of one excellent player 14 years ago is no excuse for a franchise in shambles today.

Consider the Spurs. Consider Duncan the ideal building block for a title team. Now consider all of the things that seem lucky, but were not. It wasn't luck that the Spurs began scouting Europe sooner and better than anyone else, which led to picking Tony Parker at the end of the first round and Manu Ginobili in the second. It isn't luck that they actually manage salary cap space. It isn't luck that they have a system and philosophy for both winning games and putting together a team. It was luck that they got David Robinson. It was luck that they got Tim Duncan. It was also lucky that David Robinson was the kind of guy to convince Duncan to stay in San Antonio even as Orlando nearly lured him away years ago (whereas he might've jumped ship from a poorly run Boston team).

But as GM R.C. Buford recently told USA today, the key is to rely on luck as little as possible:

We know what we are looking for (hard-working, high-character, team-oriented, mentally tough, coachable and unselfish players), and the important component of it is knowing what works and what doesn't work — and that qualifies your risk.

It's that last phrase that gets right to it. There is luck involved in every decision, but when you have a plan and a system to implement that plan, you quickly reduce your risk of failure.

In this case, Boston planned to rely on luck, so they came into the offseason with a 60 percent chance of failure (as far as the fans are concerned), borne entirely by ping pong balls. It's not smart to against the house. Simmons, as a gambler, knows this.

Now, about those Spurs titles: There's a reason our role players -- a vastly undervalued component of championship NBA teams, just ask the Cavs -- always fit together with the stars like gears in a machine. It's because the Spurs know what they need from each of their parts, and then they go get the players who can fill those roles. And they get them cheap. That, in turn, makes those players easier to move if management miscalculates -- like with Nick Van Exel or Rasho Nesterovic. The system also makes it easier to overcome small strokes of bad luck. Can't get Luis Scola of his Euro-league contract? The Spurs just nab Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson for relative pennies.

In the end, this is why the team adapts so well even as the league becomes smaller and faster. It's also why they beat so many different types of teams. They have a system -- on offense and defense and substitution patterns and Popovich's guaranteed time-out at the 6-minute mark of the first quarter, etc. -- that works, and they stick to it. Just like Detroit does. And just like Utah is trying to do.

But, really, the most grating thing about these poor-me discussions is that they ignore every counterexample. For every Tim Duncan, there is a Kevin Garnett -- an ideal building block piled high with shit. For every Tim Duncan, there is also a Steve Nash -- unheralded out of college but hugely effective. There's just no saying how a player would have panned out in a different situation.

The Celtics and their fans, though, have convinced themselves they needed a savior, and only Oden or Durant would do. Just as they convinced themselves that Duncan would have brought several rings to Boston. But there's really no way to say. What we do know is that Boston is a franchise that squandered one entire draft despite having three first-round picks; that passed on Brandon Roy simply to dump a contract; that gave huge money to Antoine Walker and Vin Baker, among others; that did nothing to coherently build around Paul Pierce (not a bad building block, there); and that just extended the contract of a coach who is about as consistent as an Andris Biedrins free throw -- or, in other words, the opposite of Greg Popovich.

Yep, in spite of all that, it's just no good, rotten luck that their team sucks. Forget all the marquee players on the market this summer, all the chances to build anew -- this franchise is toast. Us Spurs fans just don't know how lucky we've got it.

*For instance, he was the only prominent writer who called out the officiating in last year's Miami-Dallas series for the abomination it was. While everyone eles wrote about the Mavs' "collapose" or the majest of D-Wade (at the line), Simmons was the only one not trumpeting the league line, not writing like he was protecting his access to the league.

Ha ha, suck it, Boston

Quick impressions on the NBA before I hit the sack to rest up for another exciting day of sitting around the Lege waiting for stuff to happen:

— For the third game in a row the Spurs were both dominant and ridiculously entertaining, just from a pure basketball standpoint. Their execution has been near flawless, and they're shooting the lights out. That owes a lot to all the lay-ups the Jazz keep giving up, which in turn leads to a ton of wide-open threes. Jazz will be a different animal at home, though.

— Watching the lottery tonight, I realized I somehow came to a conclusion on the Oden/Durant debate despite not really thinking about it for weeks. Oden has to go #1. Maybe it's because I've been watching Tim Duncan so much these last few weeks, or because I saw a ridiculous video of Oden easily doing point-guard ball-handling drills with two basketballs, but I've come around to the irreplaceable value of an anchor in the middle of the floor. If Oden learns to control the court on the offensive end like Duncan does, and he combines that with near-David-Robinson-like athletic ability? Whew, boy, watch out.

— I'm happy for the Blazers. I love Brandon Roy. They've got Lamarcus, who always seemed like a good-natured guy here at UT. And they seem to be putting together the team the right way. Nice reward for what is apparently a great fan base. Too bad their in the West, though.

— I'm not so pleased about Durant to the Sonics, mainly because I think Ray Allen plays like a whiny little twit. Although, given the other sad sacks in the lottery, this is probably the least bad scenario. Long's super-pumped about the Durant-to-Collison possibilities, so there's that, too.

— It gives me great satisfaction to see none of the tanking teams, Milwaukee, Memphis, or Boston, in the top three. I'm especially tired of the woe-is-me routine from Boston fans. Seriously, it's getting old, doubly so since this is same horse shit you pulled with the Red Sox forever. It helps none how disgracefully your team has handled the situation. Losing the Duncan lottery didn't doom your team to failure; the loads of incompetent moves after that did. The Celtics were not putting the complementary talent around Timmy that the Spurs have. It's very likely that Duncan would've jumped ship years ago, probably to the Magic, considering how close he came to leaving the Spurs in the mid-'90s (when Doc Rivers coached Orlando, no less, I think). Furthermore, all this crying about injuries is worthless blubbering: compare it to the Bobcats, who this season made a serious playoff run down the stretch despite having just as many injury problems and being just as young. They also actually seem to be attempting to put together a real team instead of an amalgam of mismatched, albeit promising, parts awaiting a savior (i.e., the next Basketball Jesus). Shut up, trade Pierce, draft the Chinese guy, and put together a real team.

— Contrary to what all these idiot experts say, Lebron James made the right play in passing to a wide open Donyell Marshall for the win the other night. Lebron James is not now, and will never be, the next Michael Jordan, so people really need to stop trying force him to play like Michael Jordan circa the best years of Michael's career.

— Damn, this is a lot longer than I intended.

Great.

Not the damn asterisk again. Thanks, David Stern. The Spurs played one hell of a game last night, and I couldn't even enjoy it. Wonderful job pissing off the entire basketball-watching public.

And while we're here, can you please hurry up and rig the draft to do something about the black cloud of boredom known as the Eastern Conference? It's starting to get embarrassing.